Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continue to rise, and the event is expected to reach its peak around November to December. Experts say this El Nino may become extremely strong and could be the most intense on record.
What Is Happening Now
Since this summer, the development of El Nino has already shown clear signs. The eastern Pacific is forming two rain belts from north to south, with widespread heavy rainfall, overlapping affected areas, and more active, stronger typhoons that may bring longer-lasting wind and rain impacts.
The China National Climate Center said the central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered El Nino conditions in May 2026. Sea temperatures have risen rapidly since then.
Rapid Warming in the Pacific
In July, the monitored sea temperature index reached 2.09°C, up 0.49°C from June. In the first half of August, it further climbed to 2.64°C, showing very rapid warming.
When the three-month running mean of the sea temperature index in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reaches or exceeds 0.5°C for at least five months, an El Nino event can be officially identified. If the peak intensity reaches 2.5°C or higher, it is classified as an extremely strong event.
Why This Event Matters
Although the August sea temperature index has already exceeded 2.5°C, the three-month running mean used in the national standard has not yet reached the threshold for an extremely strong event. In other words, the event is not officially classified as extremely strong yet.
However, forecasts show that sea surface temperatures are likely to continue rising and may peak around November to December. The running mean could exceed the 2.5°C threshold, making this an extremely strong El Nino event.
If that happens, the event could surpass the three previous extremely strong El Nino events in 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016.
UN Warning on Climate Action
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the scientific community has clearly warned that the probability of El Nino arriving in the coming months is as high as 90%.
He said El Nino will add to global warming and increase the destructive power of climate disasters. He called for urgent climate action, including reducing fossil fuel dependence, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting vulnerable groups, and advancing early warning systems for all.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the El Nino expected to peak?
The current forecast suggests the peak may arrive around November to December.
Why is this El Nino considered very strong?
Sea temperatures are rising quickly, and the three-month running mean may exceed the 2.5°C threshold used to define an extremely strong event.
What are the likely impacts?
Typical impacts include heavier rainfall in some regions, stronger typhoons, and broader climate disruption linked with global warming.
References & Source Data
- China National Climate Center, 2026 El Nino monitoring update.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres, video statement on El Nino and climate warning.